The temporal protection and declining health of the COVID-19 vaccinated in England

A 26-month comparison of the mortality involving and not involving COVID-19 among vaccinated vs. unvaccinated

This is a short version of my preprint. A short version in Norwegian here.

Initial results

In England, from Apr 21 to May 23, the age-standardized all-cause mortality probability in percent among COVID-19 unvaccinated ten years and older was higher than among vaccinated (Figure 1A). However, as the pattern was similar concerning mortality not involving COVID-19 (Figure 1B), the discrepancy is attributed mainly to unvaccinated having inferior health at the outset.

Figure 1. Monthly mortality probabilities in percent with 95% CIs.

Possible preventive effect

There was nonetheless significant protection for vaccinated between July 21 and Jan 22, and in the absence of control variables to compare non-randomized groups, I describe below how I reached that conclusion.

At the beginning of the period, similar odds ratios (ORs) concerning all-cause mortality and mortality not involving COVID-19 for unvaccinated compared to vaccinated indicate that vaccination did not have a preventive effect (Figure 2A). However, between the last half of 21 and the beginning of 22, the ORs were higher for all-cause mortality than for mortality not involving COVID-19, which indicates a temporal preventive effect.

Figure 2. Monthly ORs of mortality with 95% CIs.

Figure 2B adds further information showing that ORs of all-cause mortality compared to mortality not involving COVID-19 between July 22 and Jan 23 were significant, with most values above 1.2. The results were reached by first differentiating the log odds (the logarithm of the ORs) of estimates reported in Figure 2A and then generating the new ORs from the differentiated log odds.

Relatively high mortality among vaccinated

However, while mortality not involving COVID-19 decreased among unvaccinated compared to the first observation month, it was high among vaccinated. I.e., a relative increase in mortality among vaccinated (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Monthly ORs of mortality with 95% CIs.

Conclusion

An interpretation is that vaccination, despite temporary protection, increased mortality. Strengthening the interpretation was relatively high mortality among vaccinated not involving COVID-19 counterintuitively following periods of excess mortality (Figure 4). Further strengthening the interpretation was relatively high mortality not involving COVID-19 among vaccinated corresponding with the excess mortality during the same period (ibid.).

Figure 4. Weekly UK excess mortality in percent and cumulative excess mortality.