Millions of lives saved by the COVID-19 vaccine: Truth or urban legend?

Updated English version. Norwegian version here.

Research by Watson and colleagues – cited more than 1700 times – has claimed that the COVID-19 vaccine saved up to 20 million lives worldwide in 2021, but the calculations on which the number is based have severe limitations and counter other statistics, I argue.

First, their study is counterfactually based on theoretical and mathematical models of assumed vaccine effect concerning transmission and case-fatality rates, not empirical data. We now know that the vaccine effect wanes after a short time, and Pfizer, “in the speed of science” has admitted that they did not even test it against transmission.

Second, I cannot see that the study accounts for eventual vaccine side effects, which have been demonstrated. Nor has it accounted for increased mortality among young people after vaccination, which also has been demonstrated.

Third, in 2020, when we did not have a vaccine, the excess mortality worldwide was about five million people. Assuming that up to 20 million lives were saved in 2021, it is unreasonable to assume that less than five million lives would have been saved in 2020 if we had a vaccine. I.e., it would have induced negative excess mortality, which is rationally unlikely.

Fourth, assuming that up to 20 million more people would have died in the absence of the COVID-19 vaccine would have induced an extreme acceleration in cumulative excess mortality worldwide. Thus, as the excess mortality worldwide in 2021 was about 10-11 million, assuming that up to 20 million lives were saved due to the vaccine, the excess mortality that year in its absence would have been up to 30 million. I.e., up to six times higher excess mortality than in the previous year. However, such a pattern does not align with the steady increase in mortality observed before and during the early vaccine rollout. Specifically, from the middle of November 2020 and later, the accumulated excess mortality worldwide, excluding China, which the study by Watson and colleagues also did, shows a stable increase in cumulative excess deaths. Moreover, the second and most severe wave of COVID-19 deaths peaked around January 25, 2021, before the vaccine rollout could have had a substantial worldwide effect with 1.13 doses per hundred people. Coining those observations with theoretically assuming a strong acceleration in mortality during 2021 absent of vaccination does not align with knowledge from previous virus pandemics, showing that the pattern abates after the second wave.

Based on the arguments, it is unlikely that the COVID-19 vaccine saved up to 20 million lives in 2021, as suggested by Watson and colleagues. As their study is cited more than 1700 times, its claim instead appears to have become an urban legend.