Increased cardiac and all-cause mortality among young people after COVID-19 vaccination
Contrary to the authors’ argument, a study by Nafilyan, et al. shows increased cardiac and all-cause mortality after COVID-19 vaccination among young people in England, 12-29 years old, during the first 12 weeks, followed by another increase after 24 weeks.
Nafilyan, et al. concluded that “there is no significant increase in cardiac or all-cause mortality in the 12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccination compared to more than 12 weeks after any dose” (p. 1), but their data tell a different story, and I explain how.
The study applied a self-controlled case series methodology, where “individuals act as their own control”, implying “comparisons are made within [not between] individuals” (p. 1). Specifically, it compared the relative incidence of all-cause and cardiac deaths among young individuals in England, 12-29 years old, in the weeks after vaccination to a later reference period.
Supplementary Figure 7a shows the relative incidence of all-cause and cardiac deathsin weeks 2-24 after vaccination from all three doses combined compared to a later reference period. Practically all weekly values concerning all-cause mortality are significantly (95% CIs) and markedly below one, i.e., they are below the mortality rate during the reference period after 24 weeks, and the pattern is similar concerning cardiac mortality.
A potential explanation for why markedly fewer died during weeks 2-24 is vaccine protection, but the numbers do not correspond to the percentage of deaths among young people in England and Wales, 12-29 years old, either due to or involving COVID-19 (shown in the figure below where data is derived from the UK Office for National Statistics). In other words, since the vaccine roll-out among young people, the percentage of deaths either due to or involving COVID-19 should have been markedly higher if one were even to suspect temporal vaccine protection as an explanation. Moreover, as the all-cause mortality pattern was similar concerning each dose (Supplementary Figure 7b), it does not align with the steadily decreasing percentage of deaths among the young, either due to or involving COVID-19. Hence, if vaccine protection were to be a valid explanation, one should observe the relatively low incidence of all-cause deaths to abate after each dose, but this is not the case. Finally, to my knowledge, the COVID-19 vaccine does not protect against cardiac deaths, which contradicts it as an explanation of markedly fewer incidents in that category during weeks 2-24.
Accordingly, there is no logical reason why the mortality patterns should be abnormally low during weeks 2-24 after vaccination reported in Supplementary Figure 7a, and the only explanation, therefore, is that they were abnormally high during the reference period. It implies that COVID-19 vaccination has increased all-cause and cardiac mortality after 24 weeks.
During the time window reported in Supplementary Figure 7a, one can also observe a temporal increase in all-cause deaths, taking a maximum value about 12 weeks after vaccination, consistent across doses (Supplementary Figure 7b), and the pattern was similar concerning cardiac deaths. Besides the detrimental effect of vaccines, I cannot see another logical explanation for the temporal increase.
Altogether, the study by Nafilyan, et al. reveals a temporal increase in all-cause and cardiac deaths during the first 12 weeks after vaccination, followed by another increase after 24 weeks.
The findings align with research showing excess deaths after the COVID-19 pandemic’s peak, including among young people, according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. The findings moreover align with research showing increased myocarditis from COVID-19 vaccination, while a pre-vaccination study did not find any association between myocarditis and COVID-19 infection.