COVID-vaccinated were 26% less likely to die in traffic accidents, a French study shows

Compared to the unvaccinated, the same study found that the risk of dying from drowning was reduced by 27% among COVID-vaccinated and by 37% for breast cancer. And as if that weren’t enough, COVID-vaccinated women had a whopping 59% reduced likelihood of dying from birth complications compared to their unvaccinated counterparts. (Norwegian version here.)

What a vaccine effect!

The numbers are as convincing as the Norwegian study that showed a 30% lower all-cause mortality rate among COVID-vaccinated in the 18-44 age group, and 58% when control variables were included in the analyses.

Again, what a vaccine effect, but having said that, it should also be noted that hardly anyone in Norway has died from COVID-19 in the relevant age group.

So, jokes aside. The absurdity of both the French and Norwegian studies is that it is practically meaningless to compare very different people groups, COVID-vaccinated and unvaccinated, even with so-called relevant control variables. For example, we know from England that the proportion of unvaccinated was “higher for Black Caribbean, Black African and White Other ethnic groups. Rates were also higher for those living in deprived areas, who have never worked or are long-term unemployed, who are limited a lot by a disability, … or who are male”. These are people with low socio-economic status, which makes them relatively vulnerable to dying from almost any cause, as both the French and Norwegian studies show. In addition, the Norwegian study shows that including control variables can make matters worse, as is also known from other research.

However, the French study shows that COVID-vaccinated in particular had a lower probability of dying from COVID-19 infection than unvaccinated, 74%. As long as the reduction is greater than in the examples above (and greater than other numbers in the French study), it may indicate genuine vaccine protection. An alternative or complementary explanation, on the other hand, may be that unvaccinated people at the outset were particularly vulnerable to getting sick and dying from COVID-19, which we know from Norway, where people from poor countries were greatly overrepresented in the hospital admission statistics. (Figure 1b from the study reported below shows hospital admissions per 100,000 from different countries of birth between June 15, 2020, and March 31, 2021, where estimates in green are adjusted for gender, age, and municipality of residence. People born in Norway are marked with the stipple line.)

Temporary protection or not, the mortality rate from COVID-19 among the unvaccinated has fallen sharply compared to the vaccinated, according to English data I have analyzed (Figure 4 from my study reported below shows odds ratios of deaths involving COVID-19 among unvaccinated vs. vaccinated). At best, this indicates reduced vaccine protection, which must also have fallen sharply.

More seriously, however, is that while mortality from all causes other than COVID-19 has also fallen among the unvaccinated, it has remained high among the vaccinated, which implies a relative increase (Figure 5 from my study reported below shows odds ratios of deaths not involving COVID-19 for vaccinated (in blue) and unvaccinated (in red) compared to April 2021, which was the first observation month). A likely interpretation is that the vaccine has led to increased mortality. «Strengthening the interpretation was relatively high mortality among vaccinated not involving COVID-19 counterintuitively following periods of excess mortality. Further strengthening the interpretation was the relatively high mortality not involving COVID-19 among vaccinated individuals, corresponding with excess mortality during much of the same period.»