56 percent more women than men dying from heatwaves?

I explain how the researchers are wrong. Also, I explain how they are wrong concerning supposedly 62,000 heat-related deaths.

Ballester and colleagues argue that 56 percent more women than men died from Europe’s heatwaves in 2022, but there is no logical explanation for that. Their, in my opinion, erroneous conclusion is coined with the claim that about 100 times more people 80 years and older died from the heatwaves than those between 0 and 64 years. However, according to data from England, strongly affected by the heatwaves, the oldest age group did not have higher excess mortality than the middle-aged group, and neither was there higher excess mortality among older women than among older men.

It is nonetheless known that more older women than older men die under normal circumstances, and assuming consistent excess mortality across age groups and genders will induce the following implications: There will be exponentially more excess deaths among older people (since, as a baseline normally exponentially more older people die than young), and among them, the percentage of excess deaths will be higher among women than among men. E.g., if normally 50 percent more older women die than older men, with equal excess mortality, there will be 50 percent more excess deaths among older women than among older men. Therefore, more older women dying than men is due to the excess mortality across age groups and genders, not the heatwaves.

Ballester and colleagues further argue that Europe’s heatwaves from May 30 to September 4, 2022, caused 62,000 deaths, 45 percent of the excess mortality during that period, but this number too is unlikely.

First, if the case, one would assume that people of age and low socioeconomic status were to be most vulnerable during heatwaves, but I have noted that in England, affected by them, the oldest age group did not have higher excess mortality than the middle-aged group during the period, and the excess mortality actually increased with socioeconomic status.

A second issue is Iceland experiencing one of Europe’s highest excess mortalities during that period, which is unlikely attributed to heatwaves.

Third, countries in the southern hemisphere also experienced excess mortality from May 30 to September 4, which neither can be due to heatwaves as they had winter.

Fourth, similar to Europe, during the 2022 summer, the US also had record temperatures, resulting in 136 heat-related deaths. The number may be underestimated, but it nonetheless contrasts Europe’s claimed 62,000 deaths.

Fifth, Europe’s seasonally adjusted excess mortality in the following winter was higher than in the 2022 summer, which cannot be due to heatwaves, but neither cold weather because the season had above normal temperatures. The Economist has nonetheless claimed that higher energy prices were the reason, but in Iceland, having among Europe’s lowest prices, the excess mortality in December 2022 was 30.6 percent. Moreover, in England, the excess mortality during the winter was consistent across age groups and groups of people with different socioeconomic statuses, which is unlikely if high energy prices were the cause.

Based on my arguments, it is unlikely that the 2022 summer heatwaves caused 62,000 deaths in Europe. Also, it is unlikely that the heatwaves caused 56 percent more deaths among women than among men. Finally, one should note that abnormal cold weather is much deadlier than abnormal warm weather.